BRICS — Weekly Press Board
Week of Sep 15–21, 2025 · Focus: INR rails · Brazil→China agri flows · NDB pipeline · Signal: local-currency & South-South deals
Gazette
Policy · RBI→CCIL non-USD INR pairs Sep 19
Trade · India–UAE non-oil target $100B 3–4y
Agri · China soy 42.26 Mt Brazil vs 16.57 Mt U.S. Jan–Jul
DevFin · NDB approvals ≈ $10B (CN, ~30 projects) Sep
FX · CNY 7.115 · INR 88.08 · BRL 5.32 · ZAR 17.33 · RUB 83.24 Sep 19
| Category | Headline / Item | Countries | Date | Status / Metric | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Ratings | |||||
| Sovereign | India affirmed at BBB / Baa3 / BBB- (S&P/Moody’s/Fitch) | India | Sep 2025 | Stable | Growth & fiscal glide underpin stance |
| Sovereign | South Africa at BB- / Ba2 / BB- (S&P positive) | South Africa | Sep 2025 | Improving | Reform traction; power stability helps |
| Sovereign | China at A+ / A1 (Neg) / A | China | 2025 | Watch | LGFV & property in focus |
| FX Reserves & Gold | |||||
| Reserves | China FX reserves ~$3.322T (SAFE) | China | Aug 2025 | Flat m/m | Ample cover |
| Reserves | India FX reserves ~$703B (RBI) | India | Sep 2025 | Higher w/w | Healthy import cover |
| Gold | Official gold: CN ~2,299t; RU ~2,330t; IN ~~880t | CN · RU · IN | 2025 | Accumulating | WGC tracking |
| Trade Volumes & Agreements | |||||
| Flows | China soy arrivals: 42.26 Mt Brazil vs 16.57 Mt U.S. (Jan–Jul ’25) | Brazil → China | YTD Jul 2025 | Brazil share ↑ | Customs/Reuters weekly |
| Agreement | India–UAE set $100B non-oil trade target (3–4y) under CEPA follow-through | India · UAE | Sep 2025 | Targeting | Local-currency rails in scope |
| Energy, Mining & Metals | |||||
| Energy | Russia→India crude remains double-digit share of India intake (’25 ytd) | Russia → India | 2025 | Stable | Urals flows; product swaps |
| Metals | Iron ore Brazil→China; ref price ~$105/t (Sep 19) | Brazil → China | Sep 2025 | Range-bound | Qingdao 62% Fe marker |
| Payments & FX Rails | |||||
| Policy | RBI tasks CCIL to enable non-USD INR pairs for trading & settlement | India | Sep 19, 2025 | Implementation | Supports INR internationalisation |
Editorial rule: primary sources first (central banks, customs/ports, regulators, NDB, stats). Weekly cadence; statuses reflect conditions at publication.
| Category | Deal / Counterparties | Countries | Value / Terms | Status | Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade & Investment | ||||||
| Target | Non-oil trade expansion under CEPA follow-through | India · UAE | $100B target (3–4y) | In progress | Sep 2025 | Local-currency settlement in scope |
| MoU | Customs fast-track & port clearance cooperation | Brazil · China | Operational KPIs | Active | 2025 | Secures agri/ore throughput |
| Energy & Infrastructure | ||||||
| Supply | Urals crude flows; product-swap arrangements | Russia → India | Term / spot mix | Flowing | 2025 | High-teens % of India intake (ytd) |
| MoU | LNG cargo cooperation & seasonal swaps | Russia · China/India | Index-linked | Window | 2025 | Pipeline + spot balancing |
| Payments & FX Rails | ||||||
| Policy | Enable non-USD INR trading & settlement via CCIL | India | Multi-pair infra | Implementation | Sep 19, 2025 | INR internationalisation |
Deal status keys — In progress / MoU / Announced / Closed.
| Deal / Asset | Parties | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-haul soy shipment tranche | Brazil → China | Spot lot | Sep 2025 | Closed |
| Term cargo • Urals to India (monthly) | Russia → India | Confidential | Sep 2025 | Closed |
| Commodity | Price | Unit | Date | Production (BRICS) | BRICS Share | Reserves / Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Metals | ||||||
| Gold | ~3,660 | USD/oz | 21 Sep 2025 | China, Russia, South Africa | ~20% mine output | CB buying supportive; CNY/INR demand firm |
| Platinum | ~1,400 | USD/oz | 21 Sep 2025 | South Africa dominant | ~70% supply | Hydrogen & auto catalysts balance |
| Palladium | ~1,100 | USD/oz | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia, South Africa | ~60% supply | ICE-to-EV shift caps demand |
| Silver | ~41.0 | USD/oz | 21 Sep 2025 | China (refining) | — | PV installs support |
| Base & Industrial Metals | ||||||
| Copper | ~10,050 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | China (demand), Russia | ~50% demand | Grid & EV buildout |
| Nickel | ~15,000 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia; China (NPI/stainless) | — | Indonesia supply weighs |
| Aluminium | ~2,350 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | China (smelting), Russia | ~60% smelting | Power costs key |
| Iron Ore (62% Fe) | ~105.0 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | Brazil → China | ~65% seaborne demand (CN) | Steel margins mixed |
| Energy | ||||||
| Brent Crude | ~67.0 | USD/bbl | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia, Saudi (BRICS+), UAE (BRICS+) | ~45% OPEC+ core | Demand softness vs cuts |
| Dubai/Oman | ~66.0 | USD/bbl | 21 Sep 2025 | Saudi, UAE (BRICS+) | — | Asia refinery marker |
| LNG (JKM) | ~11.2 | USD/MMBtu | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia exports; CN/IN demand | — | Storage comfortable |
| Thermal Coal (NEWC) | ~108 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia, South Africa | ~25% seaborne | Prices softening |
| Uranium (UxC) | ~91 | USD/lb | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia fuel cycle; CN demand | — | Nuclear restarts tailwind |
| Fertilizers & Inputs | ||||||
| Urea (ME) | ~345 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | China, Russia; India imports | — | Seasonal buying windows |
| DAP (phosphate) | ~525 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | China; India demand | — | Firm ag demand |
| Potash (MOP) | ~300 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia; India imports | — | Muted buying |
| Agriculture & Soft Commodities | ||||||
| Soybeans (CBOT) | ~13.2 | USD/bu | 21 Sep 2025 | Brazil → China | Top flow globally | Brazil dominance persists |
| Corn (CBOT) | ~4.3 | USD/bu | 21 Sep 2025 | China demand; Brazil export | — | Harvest pressure |
| Wheat (MATIF/CBOT) | ~245 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | Russia exporter; Egypt buyer (BRICS+) | ~20% exports (RU) | Black Sea flows key |
| Sugar #11 | ~0.22 | USD/lb | 21 Sep 2025 | Brazil dominant | ~40% exports | Center-South crush guides |
| Coffee (Arabica) | ~2.05 | USD/lb | 21 Sep 2025 | Brazil top producer | ~35% output | Weather, stocks |
| Tea | ~2.4 | USD/kg | 21 Sep 2025 | China, India | ~50% output | Monsoon pattern risk |
| Palm Oil (BMD) | ~880 | USD/ton | 21 Sep 2025 | Indonesia (BRICS), Malaysia (non) | ~60% (ID share) | Biodiesel blend policy |
| Currency | Pair | Rate | Date | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese Yuan (CNY) | USD/CNY | 7.11 | 21 Sep 2025 | Stable; PBoC manages near 7.10 corridor. |
| Indian Rupee (INR) | USD/INR | 88.1 | 21 Sep 2025 | RBI easing SRVA norms boosts INR-settled trade. |
| Brazilian Real (BRL) | USD/BRL | 5.32 ▲ | 21 Sep 2025 | Strengthens on soy & iron ore export receipts. |
| Russian Ruble (RUB) | USD/RUB | 83.2 ▼ | 21 Sep 2025 | Weaker on oil volatility; sanctions pressure remains. |
| South African Rand (ZAR) | USD/ZAR | 17.3 ▲ | 21 Sep 2025 | Gains on gold & PGM exports amid Fed pause. |
| Saudi Riyal (SAR) | USD/SAR | 3.75 | 21 Sep 2025 | Firm peg; oil receipts healthy. |
| UAE Dirham (AED) | USD/AED | 3.67 | 21 Sep 2025 | Steady peg; strong FX reserves cushion. |
| Egyptian Pound (EGP) | USD/EGP | 49.0 | 21 Sep 2025 | Range-bound under IMF program. |
| Ethiopian Birr (ETB) | USD/ETB | 142 ▼ | 21 Sep 2025 | Managed depreciation persists. |
| Iranian Rial (IRR) | USD/IRR | ~420,000 | 21 Sep 2025 | Divergence between official and parallel markets. |
| Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) | USD/IDR | 15,380 | 21 Sep 2025 | Stable; Bank Indonesia intervention active. |