PORT LOUIS — From Mauritius's strategic position at the crossroads of Africa and Asia, the island nation watches as a new chapter unfolds in the competition for influence across two continents. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Wednesday proposed an economic zone connecting the Indian Ocean to Africa as the country seeks to play a greater role in the African continent while America's presence there decreases and China's influence rapidly grows.

The announcement, made at the Ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) in Yokohama from August 20-22, 2025, represents Tokyo's most ambitious attempt to architect a new economic corridor linking East Africa's emerging markets with Asia's industrial bases—with island nations like Mauritius potentially serving as critical nodes.

The Architecture of Japan's Vision

Under the Indian Ocean Africa economic zone initiative, Japan aims to bring investment into Africa from Japanese companies operating in India and the Middle East. The initiative comes backed by substantial financial commitments: Ishiba said Japan will extend loans of up to $5.5 billion in coordination with African Development Bank to promote Africa's sustainable development to address their debt problems.

Unlike China's Belt and Road Initiative, which has focused on massive infrastructure projects, Japan's approach emphasizes what Tokyo calls "quality infrastructure"—a coded reference to projects meeting higher environmental and governance standards. Japanese companies focus on projects with long-term social and economic benefits, including health systems, education, local manufacturing, and environmental stewardship – an approach that resonates with African leaders seeking to build resilience and autonomy.

The initiative includes ambitious capacity-building components. He also said Japan aims to provide support to train 30,000 artificial intelligence experts over the next three years to promote digitalization and create jobs. This focus on human capital development reflects Japan's own development experience and distinguishes its approach from purely infrastructure-focused initiatives.

The Geopolitical Chessboard

Japan's timing appears deliberate. This year's summit comes as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war and drastic cuts in foreign-aid programs have negatively affected development projects in Africa. Meanwhile, China has been expanding its foothold in the area since 2000 through infrastructure building and loan projects.

The numbers tell a stark story of shifting influence. China's transactions with Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) surged to $39 billion in the first half of 2025, outpacing all other regions and reflecting the Asian superpower's global infrastructure foreign policy pivot toward mineral-rich and high-growth potential African states. For comparison, China has committed a total of $29.2 billion to projects across Africa in 2024 through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), showing a dramatic acceleration in 2025.

The mining sector, with a total of $21.4 billion in investments, surpassed the transport sector in 2024, largely due to rising investments in critical mineral exploitation across Africa, Latin America, and Indonesia. This focus on critical minerals—essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies—underscores the strategic dimensions of the competition.

Africa's Response: Between Hope and Skepticism

The summit drew substantial African participation. Leaders and representatives from 53 African countries in attendance, the September 2024 Beijing Summit was a diplomatic milestone, with similar high-level representation at TICAD 9. We were pleased to welcome high-level representatives from regional organizations, international organizations, the private sector, civil society organizations of Japan, and legally and nationally registered civil society organizations of Africa, including women and youth, and environmental stakeholders from Japan and Africa.

African leaders have been clear about their priorities. "Africa must have a stronger voice in shaping the decisions that affect its future," United Nation's Secretary-General António Guterres, said at the event, adding that African nations are underrepresented in the international community and its decision-making process.

Ghana's President John Dramani Mahama struck a pragmatic tone in his closing remarks: "Africa is open for business. We wish to partner with any nation on a win-win basis. But let's not kid ourselves, trade and investments will not come to Africa because we wish for it."

The Mauritius Factor

For Mauritius and other Indian Ocean island nations, the initiative presents both opportunities and challenges. The proposed zone would leverage existing trade corridors and financial centers, potentially positioning Mauritius as a hub for regulatory harmonization and financial services.

The initiative explicitly aims to support the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Japan's Prime Minister emphasized: "Japan backs the concept of African Continental Free Trade Area," a trade blueprint that is modelled to bolster Africa's competitiveness while promoting exchange of goods and services within Africa.

Implementation Challenges and Private Sector Engagement

Despite Africa receiving just 0.5 percent of Japan's global foreign direct investment, Tokyo believes it can scale up significantly. With Japanese net external assets reaching record highs in 2024, there is both capital and capacity for major expansion in African markets.

The TICAD process itself has evolved significantly since its inception. The TICAD process demonstrates Japan's commitment to multilateral development cooperation, working closely with the United Nations, World Bank, and African Union rather than pursuing purely bilateral relationships.

Youth at the Center

In a historic development, Marking a historic milestone in TICAD's 32-year history, the conference witnessed for the first time the launch of a youth-led declaration and action plan, formally recognized in the Plenary Session. This youth focus aligns with Africa's demographic reality—the continent has the world's youngest population, with a median age of 19 years.

The Yokohama Declaration: Commitments and Concerns

The summit concluded with the adoption of the Yokohama Declaration on August 22, 2025. The three-day conference concluded with the adoption of the Yokohama Declaration, which outlined enhanced Japan-Africa cooperation in economy, society, and peace and stability.

• Enhanced cooperation on health, youth entrepreneurship, and governance
• Support for democratic institutions and rule of law as foundations for sustainable development
• Alignment with the African Union's Agenda 2063 and its Second Ten Year Implementation Plan
• Focus on three main pillars: Society, Peace and Stability, and Economy

Beyond Infrastructure: The Differentiation Strategy

Japan's approach explicitly differentiates itself from Chinese models in several ways. While According to state broadcaster CCTV, BRI investment in Africa has helped build over 12,000 kilometers of road and railway tracks, around 20 ports, and more than 80 power facilities, Japan emphasizes institutional capacity building and technology transfer.

The financial structure also differs markedly. Unlike some BRI projects that have led to debt distress, Japan's offering includes concessional terms and coordination with multilateral institutions like the African Development Bank. This approach reflects lessons learned from debt crises in countries like Sri Lanka and Zambia.

Critical Minerals and the Green Transition

The focus on critical minerals emerges as a key battleground. The minerals and metals sector saw a similar investment leap, with $24.9 billion in total BRI investment in the first half of 2025 — surpassing the previous annual record. Around $10 billion was channelled into processing infrastructure on the continent.

Japan's response includes partnerships for mineral processing and value addition within Africa, addressing what Lauren Johnson, a senior research fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs describes as "resource nationalism" which requires investors to invest in processing in-country for access to the minerals amid competition with the USA and Europe.

Looking Ahead: The Test of Implementation

As UNDP's analysis notes: "TICAD9 has generated a lot of positive energy, focusing on co-creation and placing African communities at the center of their own development drive." However, the real test lies ahead.

• Harmonizing regulations across countries with vastly different legal systems and development levels
• Competing with China's established presence and growing investments
• Overcoming Japanese private sector reluctance stemming from past African ventures
• Navigating complex local politics and governance challenges

For African nations, the opportunity lies not in choosing between Chinese and Japanese models but in leveraging competition to maximize domestic benefits. As one African Union official noted in the Yokohama Declaration preparations, the 21st century must be about what Africa does with what others offer—using these initiatives as raw material for African agency.

Conclusion: A Strategic Recalibration

Japan's Indian Ocean-Africa Economic Zone represents more than another development initiative. It embodies Tokyo's strategic recalibration in an era of great power competition, where Africa's demographic dividend and resource wealth make it indispensable to any serious Indo-Pacific strategy.

With implementation set to begin in late 2025, the next months will determine whether this initiative catalyzes genuine regional transformation or joins the long list of ambitious but ultimately unrealized development schemes. For Mauritius and other Indian Ocean nations, the challenge—and opportunity—lies in positioning themselves not as passive recipients but as active shapers of this emerging economic architecture.

The stakes could hardly be higher: for Japan's strategic relevance in a multipolar world, for Africa's development trajectory at a critical demographic juncture, and for the Indian Ocean's emergence as a contested but potentially transformative economic space linking two continents with a combined population exceeding 2.5 billion people.

Based on reporting from TICAD 9 in Yokohama (August 20-22, 2025), official statements, and analysis of China's Belt and Road Initiative data from the Green Finance & Development Center and other sources.