The Global South's Economic Alliance Has Emerged—And It's Reshaping the International Order

BRICS is no longer an experiment; it is the backbone of the Global South's new century. What began in 2006 as an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill has evolved into the world's most consequential economic and political alliance—one that now commands 41% of global GDP and encompasses half the world's population.

As Indonesia officially joined as the tenth full member on January 6, 2025, completing a remarkable expansion that began with four new members in 2024, BRICS now stands as an undeniable counterweight to Western economic dominance. The numbers tell the story: while the G7's share of global GDP (measured by purchasing power parity) has collapsed from 52% in 1990 to just 30% in 2024, BRICS has risen to 35% and growing.

This is not merely economic realignment—it is the emergence of a new world order centered on Global South priorities: sovereignty over subordination, development over dependency, and multipolarity over Western hegemony.

The Architecture of Power

From Four to Ten: The Great Expansion

BRICS began modestly. The first BRIC summit convened in Yekaterinburg, Russia in 2009 with just four members: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. South Africa joined in 2010, creating the familiar BRICS acronym. For fourteen years, the organization remained a five-member club, building institutions and deepening cooperation while Western analysts dismissed it as a talking shop for emerging markets.

That comfortable dismissal ended in 2024. At the Kazan summit in October, BRICS admitted four new full members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—while Saudi Arabia's membership remains under consideration. Argentina was invited but declined under its new government. Most dramatically, Indonesia became the tenth member in January 2025, bringing the world's largest archipelagic state and fourth most populous country into the fold.

But the expansion doesn't stop there. Nine countries have been welcomed as BRICS "partners"—a pathway to full membership that includes Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. This partner system, unveiled at Kazan, signals BRICS' evolution from an exclusive club to an expansive Global South coalition.

The Economic Juggernaut

The expanded BRICS represents economic power on a scale that dwarfs the G7. According to IMF data analyzed by BRICS Brasil, the organization's combined GDP reached $30.8 trillion in 2024, representing 41% of the global economy measured by purchasing power parity. By comparison, the G7 accounts for just 30%—a stunning reversal from 1990, when the Western economies commanded over half of world output.

The growth trajectory heavily favors BRICS. While G7 economies struggle with aging populations and sluggish growth, BRICS members lead global expansion. Ethiopia projects 6.6% growth in 2025, India 6.2%, Indonesia 4.7%, the UAE 4%, and China 4%—all substantially above G7 averages.

The Membership: Profiles of Power

Founding Members

2024 Expansion Members

Commodity Dominance: The Resources That Power the World

BRICS' true power lies in its control of commodities that drive the global economy. The expanded grouping dominates critical supply chains:

Energy Supremacy

With the addition of Saudi Arabia (pending), Iran, and the UAE, BRICS oil production surged from 20.4% to 43.1% of global output. The organization now controls:

• 43% of global oil production
• 40% of natural gas reserves
• Major coal producers (China, India, Indonesia, Russia)

Critical Minerals

BRICS members are among the world's leading producers of strategic minerals essential for renewable energy and technology:

• Iron ore: Brazil (2nd), China (3rd), India (4th), Russia (5th), South Africa (8th)
• Copper: China (3rd), Russia (7th), Indonesia (9th)
• Nickel: Indonesia (1st), Russia (3rd), China (7th), Brazil (8th)
• Cobalt: Democratic Republic of Congo produces 74% globally, while China controls 85% of processing
• Rare Earth Elements: China produces 60% of global supply

Food Security

BRICS controls significant portions of global food production:

• Grain production: China, India, Russia, Brazil among top producers
• Fertilizer: Russia and China control major global supplies
• Agricultural exports: Brazil leads in soybeans and beef, Russia in wheat

This commodity dominance gives BRICS unprecedented leverage in global supply chains and price-setting power that challenges traditional Western financial control.

Social and Demographic Weight

Population Powerhouse

BRICS encompasses 3.5 billion people—45% of humanity and growing. This demographic advantage compounds over time as birth rates in advanced economies decline while BRICS populations remain young and dynamic.

Population Comparison:

• BRICS: 3.5+ billion (45% of world population)
• G7: 780 million (10% of world population)
• EU: 450 million (6% of world population)

Youth Dividend

Unlike aging Western societies, BRICS benefits from young populations driving innovation, consumption, and growth:

• India: Median age 28 years
• Indonesia: Median age 30 years
• Brazil: Median age 33 years
• China: Median age 39 years (but 1.4 billion people)

Digital Transformation

BRICS leads global digitalization outside the West:

• China: World leader in 5G, e-commerce, mobile payments
• India: Largest digital transformation program, UPI payment system
• Indonesia: Southeast Asia's digital economy leader
• Brazil: Latin America's fintech innovation hub

Educational Advancement

BRICS invests heavily in education and produces more STEM graduates than Western nations combined:

• China: Produces 40% of world's engineering graduates
• India: Largest technical education system globally
• Russia: Strong scientific and technical education tradition

Credit Ratings: Western Bias vs. Alternative Assessments

The global credit rating system, dominated by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, systematically undervalues BRICS economies while inflating Western ratings. Alternative agencies provide different perspectives that reveal the bias embedded in Western financial infrastructure.

Western Agency Ratings (2024)

Dagong Global (China) Alternative Ratings

For comparison, Western countries under Dagong:

• United States: A (vs. AAA from Western agencies)
• United Kingdom: A- (vs. AA+ from Western agencies)
• Germany: AA (vs. AAA from Western agencies)

The Bias Revealed

Research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that Dagong systematically rates democratic countries lower and authoritarian countries higher than Western agencies. However, this reveals as much about Western bias as Chinese preference.

Key findings:

• Economic fundamentals often favor BRICS: China's debt-to-GDP ratio (77%) is lower than the US (133%), yet Western agencies rate America higher
• Growth trajectories: BRICS growth rates (3.4% projected) significantly exceed G7 (1.2%), suggesting better long-term creditworthiness
• Commodity backing: BRICS currencies are increasingly backed by real resources rather than monetary policy

Alternative Rating Agencies

Beyond Dagong, other non-Western agencies provide different perspectives:

• Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR): Generally more favorable to Asian economies, rates China AA- (higher than Western agencies)
• CARE Ratings (India): Focuses on emerging market fundamentals, provides detailed analysis of Global South economies
• DBRS Morningstar: Canadian agency offers middle ground between Western and non-Western perspectives

These alternative viewpoints suggest Western rating agencies embed cultural and political biases that systematically favor Western debt over Global South obligations, despite often superior economic fundamentals.

Institutions: Building Alternative Architecture

New Development Bank (NDB)

The BRICS New Development Bank, established in 2014 and headquartered in Shanghai, represents the organization's most successful institutional innovation. Under the leadership of former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, the NDB has evolved into a genuine alternative to World Bank dominance.

NDB by the Numbers (2024):

• Authorized capital: $100 billion
• Paid-in capital: $52.7 billion
• Projects approved: 96 projects worth $32.8 billion
• Geographic spread: Offices in Shanghai, São Paulo, New Delhi, Johannesburg, Moscow
• Membership expansion: Bangladesh, UAE, Egypt, Algeria

Key Achievements:

• Green Focus: 40% of projects target sustainable development and renewable energy
• Local Currency Lending: 22% of financing in local currencies, targeting 30% by 2026
• No Conditionality: Unlike IMF/World Bank, NDB imposes no structural adjustment requirements
• Equal Governance: Each founding member holds equal voting power regardless of economic size

The NDB's rapid growth demonstrates BRICS' institutional capacity. From zero in 2014 to $32.8 billion in approved projects by 2024, the bank has proven it can mobilize capital for Global South development without Western intermediation.

Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA)

The CRA provides $100 billion in mutual financial support for balance-of-payments difficulties:

• China contribution: $41 billion
• Brazil, India, Russia: $18 billion each
• South Africa: $5 billion

Unlike IMF assistance, CRA funds come without policy conditionalities, offering BRICS members protection from financial crises without surrendering sovereignty.

Payment Systems and De-Dollarization

BRICS has made significant progress in reducing dollar dependence:

• Bilateral Trade in Local Currencies: China-Russia trade increasingly in yuan and rubles
• Central Bank Digital Currencies: Multiple BRICS members developing CBDCs for cross-border transactions
• BRICS Pay: Digital payment platform for tourism and small transactions
• Commodity Trading: Increasing use of yuan for oil purchases, particularly by China from Russia and Iran

While full de-dollarization remains distant, BRICS has created alternative channels that reduce systemic dependence on Western financial infrastructure.

Geopolitics: Challenging Western Dominance

UN Voting Power

BRICS members collectively wield substantial influence in the United Nations:

• Security Council: China and Russia hold permanent seats with veto power
• General Assembly: BRICS represents 45% of world population, giving it significant voting influence
• Specialized Agencies: Growing BRICS coordination in WHO, ITU, UNESCO, and other UN bodies

Peace and Mediation Initiatives

BRICS increasingly positions itself as an alternative to Western-dominated conflict resolution:

• Ukraine: China and Brazil proposed peace plans independent of Western frameworks
• Middle East: Iran's BRICS membership provides alternative channel for regional diplomacy
• Africa: South Africa leads BRICS engagement in continental conflicts

Belt and Road Integration

China's Belt and Road Initiative overlaps significantly with BRICS expansion:

• Infrastructure Connectivity: BRI projects link BRICS members through ports, railways, and pipelines
• Financial Integration: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) complements NDB lending
• Technology Transfer: Digital Silk Road connects BRICS communication networks

OPEC+ Coordination

With Russia, Iran, UAE, and (pending) Saudi Arabia as members, BRICS now overlaps substantially with OPEC+, creating unprecedented coordination in global energy markets. This energy alliance can influence prices and supply independent of Western sanctions or pressure.

Cultural and Social Dimensions

South-South Cooperation

BRICS has pioneered new models of international cooperation that prioritize mutual benefit over conditional assistance:

Educational Exchange

• BRICS University League connects top universities across member countries
• BRICS Student Exchange programs growing rapidly
• Chinese universities increasingly popular among Global South students
• Joint research initiatives in renewable energy, medicine, agriculture

Media and Information

• BRICS media forum coordinates alternative news narratives
• RT, CGTN, Al Jazeera, and other BRICS-affiliated media challenge Western information dominance
• Growing cooperation in film, television, and digital content production

Digital Innovation

• Joint development of 5G and 6G technology standards
• Cooperation in artificial intelligence and quantum computing research
• Shared satellite navigation systems (China's BeiDou, Russia's GLONASS)
• Cross-border e-commerce platforms and digital payment systems

Healthcare Cooperation

• Joint vaccine development and distribution during COVID-19 pandemic
• Traditional medicine research collaboration
• Medical equipment and pharmaceutical production partnerships
• BRICS Tuberculosis Research Network establishment

Cultural Exchange

BRICS promotes cultural understanding through:

• Annual cultural festivals and arts exchanges
• Language learning programs (Mandarin, Hindi, Portuguese, Arabic)
• Sports cooperation including BRICS Games
• Tourism promotion and visa facilitation agreements

Challenges: Hurdles, Not Fatal Flaws

Internal Tensions

BRICS faces significant internal challenges that Western analysts often cite as fatal weaknesses. However, these should be understood as growing pains rather than existential threats:

China-India Border Disputes: The world's two most populous nations maintain tense relations over Himalayan territories, but continue expanding trade and cooperation within BRICS frameworks. Both recognize that economic integration serves their long-term interests despite territorial disagreements.

Saudi-Iran Regional Competition: The Middle East's Sunni-Shia divide plays out between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but both nations prioritize energy market coordination and economic diversification over sectarian conflict within BRICS contexts.

Democratic vs. Authoritarian Systems: BRICS includes vibrant democracies (India, Brazil, South Africa) alongside more centralized systems (China, Russia). This diversity reflects real-world governance variations rather than ideological incompatibility.

Development Level Disparities: Ethiopia's GDP per capita ($1,300) contrasts sharply with UAE's ($48,000), creating different priorities and capabilities. However, this mirrors successful regional organizations like ASEAN, which thrives despite similar disparities.

Dollar Dependency

Despite de-dollarization rhetoric, BRICS remains substantially dependent on US dollar systems:

• 75% of NDB borrowing occurs in dollars
• Most commodity trade still priced in dollars
• Central bank reserves predominantly in dollar-denominated assets

However, this dependency is declining systematically. NDB targets reducing dollar lending to 70% by 2030, while bilateral trade in local currencies grows annually.

Institutional Capacity

BRICS institutions remain smaller than Western counterparts:

• NDB's $32.8 billion in approved projects vs. World Bank's $75+ billion annually
• CRA's $100 billion vs. IMF's $1+ trillion in resources
• BRICS payment systems handle small fractions of SWIFT volumes

Yet these institutions are growing rapidly and demonstrate that alternative architectures are viable. The World Bank took decades to reach current size; NDB achieved significant scale in just ten years.

Coordination Complexity

Managing ten diverse economies across four continents presents enormous coordination challenges:

• Different legal systems and regulatory frameworks
• Varying stages of economic development
• Multiple languages and cultural contexts
• Conflicting bilateral relationships

However, BRICS has developed effective coordination mechanisms through regular summits, ministerial meetings, and working groups that address specific issues systematically.

The Vision: Foundation of Multipolar Order

BRICS represents more than economic cooperation—it embodies a fundamental challenge to Western-dominated global governance. The organization's expansion and deepening integration signal the emergence of a truly multipolar world order based on different principles:

Sovereignty Over Subordination

Unlike Western international organizations that impose conditionalities and demand policy alignment, BRICS respects member sovereignty while encouraging cooperation. The NDB lends without structural adjustment requirements, and BRICS never demands members choose between BRICS and other partnerships.

Development Over Dependency

BRICS prioritizes productive investment over financial extraction. While Western institutions often profit from Global South debt burdens, BRICS focuses on infrastructure, renewable energy, and industrial development that builds long-term capacity.

Multipolarity Over Hegemony

Rather than seeking to replace American hegemony with Chinese dominance, BRICS promotes a genuinely multipolar system where multiple centers of power cooperate and compete within agreed frameworks.

South-South Solutions

BRICS demonstrates that Global South nations can solve their own problems without Western intermediation. From COVID-19 vaccine production to renewable energy technology, BRICS members are developing indigenous capabilities that reduce dependence on traditional powers.

The State of the Mind: Chronicler of the Global South

As BRICS reshapes the international order, traditional Western media outlets struggle to understand developments that challenge their worldview. Publications that spent decades dismissing BRICS as a "talking shop" now confront an organization that commands 41% of global GDP and offers genuine alternatives to Western institutions.

This is where The State of the Mind finds its mission. As the newsletter of the Global South, we chronicle the rise of BRICS and similar institutions not as curiosities or threats, but as the natural evolution of a world where the West no longer monopolizes power and prosperity.

We understand that BRICS success reflects not Chinese ambition or anti-Western sentiment, but the Global South's determination to control its own destiny. We see what others misses: that multipolarity is not chaos but a more stable system where no single power can impose its will globally.

The State of the Mind documents this transformation because we are part of it. We are not outside observers analyzing "emerging markets" but participants in the emergence of a new world order centered on Global South priorities.

The BRICS Century Begins

The expansion of BRICS from five to ten full members, with eight additional partners and dozens more expressing interest, marks a historic inflection point. For the first time since the colonial era, the Global South has created institutions capable of challenging Western economic dominance.

The statistics speak clearly:

• BRICS commands 41% of global GDP and 45% of world population
• BRICS growth rates (3.4%) double those of G7 (1.2%)
• BRICS controls 43% of global oil production and dominates critical minerals
• BRICS currencies increasingly challenge dollar dominance in trade

But numbers only tell part of the story. BRICS represents a different vision of international cooperation—one based on mutual benefit rather than conditional assistance, sovereignty rather than subordination, and development rather than dependency.

Western institutions built after World War II served their purpose for the 20th century. But the 21st century belongs to the Global South, and BRICS is its institutional expression.

The State of the Mind sees deeper: BRICS is not emerging—it has emerged. It is not a challenger to the Western order—it is the foundation of a new order. It is not a threat to global stability—it is the guarantor of a more balanced and therefore more stable world.

The BRICS century has begun. And The State of the Mind is here to document its rise.

The State of the Mind is the newsletter of the Global South, covering economic and political developments across Africa, Asia, and Latin America with a focus on South-South cooperation and alternative development models.