Why Power Never Really Changes in the Global South

The State of the Mind · Human Intelligence Unit

The Puzzle That Refuses to Disappear

In much of the Global South, elections remain competitive on paper while power recycles in practice
Empty ballot boxes
Formal democracy persists while substantive choice evaporates, creating systems that survive on exhaustion rather than legitimacy.

Across the Global South, elections are frequent, noisy and formally competitive. Governments fall. Presidents rotate. Parties split, merge, rebrand and return. Yet power (real power) rarely changes hands.

In Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Indian Ocean, voters routinely replace leaders without replacing systems. Dynasties survive defeats. Former strongmen return through the ballot box. Corruption scandals do not end careers; they interrupt them. Infrastructure failures persist across administrations. Public frustration deepens, but political outcomes remain strangely familiar.

This pattern is often explained lazily. Voters are described as "uninformed", "clientelist", or culturally tolerant of authority. These explanations are comforting. They absolve institutions, elites and analysts from asking harder questions.

They are also wrong.

The persistence of power in the Global South is not primarily a story of ignorance. It is a story of constraint.

By The Numbers: The Infrastructure of Constraint
61%
Global workforce in informal employment (ILO, 2024)
85.8%
Employment informality rate in Africa
21.6%
Global youth NEET rate (not in employment, education or training)
28%
Youth unemployment in Arab States (highest globally)
2:1
Female to male ratio among youth NEETs (28.1% vs 13.1%)
+76M
African youth labor force growth by 2050

Elections Without Choice

At first glance, electoral democracy appears intact. According to data from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) and Freedom House, most Global South countries hold regular elections with multiple parties, competitive ballots and high voter turnout.

What these indicators fail to capture is choice quality.

In many countries, voters are offered variation without alternative. Opposition parties exist, but they are fragmented, underfunded, harassed or structurally excluded from governing capacity. Where they win, they inherit hollowed-out states, fiscal traps and entrenched patronage networks that make reform politically suicidal.

The result is a cycle of rotation without transformation.

Citizens understand this. Survey data from Afrobarometer, Latinobarómetro and the World Values Survey consistently show that while support for democracy as an ideal remains high, confidence that elections improve daily life is far weaker. People vote not because they expect change, but because abstention offers even less.

Voting becomes a defensive act, not a hopeful one.

Region Informal Employment Rate Youth Unemployment
Africa 85.8% Variable
Asia & Pacific 68.2% Variable
Arab States 68.6% 28.0%
Americas 40.0% Variable
Europe & Central Asia 25.1% Low

Corruption as Structure, Not Accident

Corruption in the Global South is often treated as theft: money stolen from public coffers. In practice, it is more insidious.

Corruption functions as a gatekeeping system.

Access to housing, permits, healthcare, education, contracts and even justice is frequently mediated through informal payments, political loyalty or personal connections. This is not random. It is structural. It converts public rights into private favours.

Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index consistently shows that corruption correlates less with regime type than with administrative opacity and discretionary power. Where bureaucrats and politicians control time, paperwork and approvals, corruption becomes a toll on dignity.

This system creates dependence. Citizens learn that survival requires compliance, not confrontation. Voting against the system risks exclusion from it. In such environments, corruption does not undermine power. It stabilises it.

Global Analysis
The Informal Economy as Political Constraint

According to the International Labour Organization's 2024 data, more than 2 billion people (61% of the global workforce) earn their livelihoods in the informal economy. This is not a marginal phenomenon. It is the dominant employment reality for the majority of the world's workers.

2B
Workers in informal employment globally
85.8%
Africa's informal employment rate
93%
World's informal employment in emerging/developing countries
92%
Women in low-income countries in informal work

Informal employment means workers lack formal contracts, job stability, social security, legal protection and workplace safety measures. When 86% of Africans and 68% of Asians work informally, political experimentation becomes existentially risky. Losing access to informal networks, permits or political patronage can mean economic catastrophe.

For these households, politics is not ideological. It is existential. Continuity beats chaos when institutions are weak and safety nets are absent.

Source: ILO Women and Men in the Informal Economy 2024, World Bank Informal Economy Database
"When 61% of the global workforce operates without formal protection, politics becomes risk management, not aspiration."

Why People Tolerate Dynasties and Strongmen

Dynastic politics and authoritarian nostalgia persist not because citizens admire them, but because alternatives appear riskier.

In countries with weak social safety nets, high informality and volatile prices, political experimentation is costly. Losing access to subsidies, permits, jobs or protection can be catastrophic. When 85.8% of African employment and 68.2% of Asia-Pacific employment is informal, according to ILO data, political continuity offers something precious: predictability.

Even predatory systems can feel safer than uncertain reform. When institutions are weak, continuity beats chaos. This is not cultural deference. It is rational risk management.

The Illusion of Progress

One of the most corrosive features of Global South governance is the illusion of progress through visible but selective infrastructure.

Airports gleam. Smart cities rise. Highways connect export zones to ports. Meanwhile, public transport decays, clinics lack staff, schools remain overcrowded, and neighbourhoods flood with every heavy rain.

Infrastructure investment is often geographically and socially targeted: serving elites, tourists, exporters and foreign investors. The rest of the population experiences neglect as normality. This selective development creates a perverse political equilibrium. Governments can point to projects. Citizens can point to their absence. Both are correct.

Over time, expectations collapse. People stop demanding solutions and start begging for inclusion.

Youth Labour Markets
When Exit Replaces Voice

The ILO's Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024 reveals a troubling pattern. While global youth unemployment fell to a 15-year low of 13% in 2023, recovery has been profoundly uneven. In the Arab States, youth unemployment remains at 28%, the highest globally. In sub-Saharan Africa, nearly three-quarters of young adults remain in insecure employment.

13%
Global youth unemployment (2023)
28%
Arab States youth unemployment
21.6%
Global youth NEET rate
259M
Young people globally in NEET status

Perhaps most revealing is the NEET data: 21.6% of youth globally are not in employment, education or training. Among young women, the rate reaches 28.1%, more than double the male rate of 13.1%. Two-thirds of all NEETs are female.

Research from the ILO and OECD shows that when youth unemployment, underemployment and migration intentions rise simultaneously, political participation shifts from voice to exit. Migration becomes the most effective form of dissent. Those who remain adjust expectations downward. They vote, but without belief. They comply, but without loyalty. They endure.

Source: ILO Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024, UN SDG Progress Report 2025

Why Protest Fades Into Silence

Contrary to popular belief, declining protest does not signal satisfaction. It often signals disengagement.

The Global South is experiencing a transition where migration is no longer merely economic; it is political. Leaving becomes the most effective form of dissent. Africa's youth labor force is projected to grow by 76 million by 2050, while all other regions face contraction. Yet this demographic dividend risks becoming a liability if job creation fails to keep pace.

This is how systems survive long after legitimacy has evaporated.

The Real Danger: Stability Without Belief

The most dangerous condition for any political system is not unrest. It is quiet disbelief.

When citizens stop expecting improvement, institutions lose their corrective feedback. Corruption becomes routine. Inefficiency becomes permanent. Leadership becomes recycling.

History shows that such systems do not collapse gradually. They persist, then rupture. The Arab uprisings, multiple Latin American crises and several African state failures were not caused by sudden shocks alone. They were preceded by years of ignored resignation.

The Global South today is not on the brink everywhere. But it is carrying more silent disbelief than headline indicators suggest.

What Actually Changes Outcomes

Political renewal in the Global South does not begin with new faces. It begins with lowering the cost of dissent and participation.

This means reducing bureaucratic discretion that enables gatekeeping, delivering basic services reliably (not symbolically), protecting labour and informal workers from political retaliation, making corruption costly for elites (not routine for citizens), and creating real economic pathways for youth beyond migration.

These are not moral imperatives. They are stability investments.

Until then, voters will continue choosing familiarity over fantasy, endurance over disruption. Not because they do not care, but because the system has taught them that caring is expensive.

Systems Built on Exhaustion

From a Mind Economy perspective, the recycling of power in the Global South reflects not voter passivity but rational adaptation to structural constraints. When 61% of workers lack formal employment protections, when 85.8% of Africans operate in informal economies, and when 21.6% of youth are disconnected from employment and education, politics becomes survival calculus.

The question is not why people tolerate familiar elites. The question is what alternative they can afford.

The Global South does not suffer from too much patience. It suffers from systems that have learned to survive on exhaustion.

Data Sources & Methodology

This analysis draws on the International Labour Organization's Women and Men in the Informal Economy (2024 update), Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024, and regional employment briefs covering sub-Saharan Africa, Arab States, Asia-Pacific and the Americas. Informal employment data covers more than 100 countries with estimates based on ILO modelled estimates using harmonized survey data.

Youth employment statistics sourced from ILO modelled estimates (November 2023 and May 2024), UN Sustainable Development Goals Progress Report 2025, and World Bank labour market indicators. NEET (not in employment, education or training) rates calculated for youth aged 15-24 and young adults aged 15-29 depending on indicator, with gender disaggregation provided where available.

Regional corruption and governance data verified through Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2024, Afrobarometer Round 9, Latinobarómetro surveys, and World Values Survey Wave 7. Electoral competitiveness assessments based on Freedom House Nations in Transit reports and International IDEA Global State of Democracy indices. All statistics cross-referenced with original source documentation to ensure accuracy.

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